GPS is in jeopardy. What’s next?

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✰ Welcome to [our digital disco]! Today we’re diving into alternative navigation: Why navigation is under threat, and the solutions bubbling up to replace it.

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☞ Navigation is under threat.

GPS, once the gold standard for navigation, is being weaponized—making it increasingly less reliable for everyone, military or not.

It’s not just GPS that’s at risk.

GPS is one of many Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) that leverages satellites for navigation and timing. GPS is owned and managed by the U.S. government, GLONASS by Russia, BeiDou by China, GAGAN and NavIC by India, QZSS by Japan, and Galileo by the European Union. (Apple incorporated NavIC into its iPhone 15 Pro back in September.) The signals of GNSS networks travel long distances from satellites to receivers… and these signals are increasingly being intercepted in electronic warfare.

The regions particularly hit with GNSS interference? Eastern Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East. These areas are geopolitically tense, and in the case of Eastern Europe and the Middle East, are experiencing ongoing and vicious military conflict. The Russia-Ukraine war has seen both sides blocking or confusing GNSS, making military operations and aid/crisis support more difficult and dangerous​. In the Middle East and Indo-Pacific, too, military activities frequently scramble GNSS signals. Last fall, for example, a spoofing incident over Iraq and Iran almost caused a business jet to enter Iranian airspace without proper clearance.

What exactly is happening?

GNSS works through a network of satellites, which communicate their position to receivers on the ground. GNSS receivers, like those on an aircraft, pick up these signals, allowing them to calculate their location and speed for accurate navigation.

GNSS interference is the disruption of these satellite signals. It comes in two main forms: jamming and spoofing. Jamming overwhelms the GNSS receiver with noise or false information, preventing it from receiving legitimate satellite signals. Spoofing involves sending fake signals to the receiver, leading users astray without their knowledge. These tactics undermine the reliability of any receiver relying on the signals, military or otherwise.

Why now?

GNSS has become a strategic asset in the military over the past few decades. In military operations, GNSS is essential for navigation, targeting, and coordination. On many aircrafts, over 70% of systems rely on GNSS data for accurate positioning and safe water passage. Disruptions can lead to navigation errors, increased risks of collision, critical fuel waste, and other problems.

The reliance on GNSS has made it a prime target in geopolitical conflict. Even worse, this trend is gaining momentum because technological advancements have make interference more cost-effective. The availability of inexpensive tools has, in effect, democratized the exploitation of GNSS vulnerabilities. Third, this type of electronic warfare isn’t isolated to the battlefields. Commercial airlines are experiencing a surge in GNSS issues. Pilots have reported instances where fake GNSS signals caused a complete loss of navigational capability, forcing crews to rely on verbal directions from air traffic controllers. Call this collateral damage to countries interfering with their adversary’s satellite signals.

Why does it matter? 

These incidents highlight the urgent need for more secure and reliable navigation technologies, that mitigate the risks associated with GNSS. The good news? Experts have been hard at work building alternatives to GNSS that aren’t as easily disrupted. Government agencies around the world are also getting involved, hoping to spur innovation to protect their forces and populations from the vulnerabilities of GNSS.

☞ What are the alternatives to GNSS for navigation?

The following technologies are emerging as potential solutions to GNSS spoofing or blocking, providing a gap-fill amidst interference, and in the long-term, a potential substitute for secure, precise navigation.

1. Celestial Navigation

• What it is: Modern celestial navigation systems calculate location based on the positions of stars, moons, and other celestial objects. This ancient method has been upgraded with advanced technology to provide a reliable alternative when GNSS signals are spoofed or blocked.

• How it works: These systems use cameras and sensors to take pictures of the sky; these images are then compared to a database of star positions. Special software calculates your exact location based on the angles and positions of the celestial objects in the images.

• Pros: Celestial navigation is not affected by electronic interference, jamming, or spoofing, making it a reliable backup when GPS signals are disrupted.

• Cons: Requires clear skies to see the stars or planets. Celestial Nav usually used to complement GNSS, which typically provides more precise, real-time location data.

• Need-to-know companies: Rhea Space Activity, Draper, Honeywell

2. Magnetic Navigation & Quantum Sensing

• What it is: Uses quantum sensors (which are extremely precise) that measure the Earth's magnetic field to determine location, speed, and direction.

• How it works: Quantum sensors can detect tiny changes in the Earth's magnetic field. When paired with maps of this magnetic field, these measurements are used to figure out where you are and which way you're facing.

• Pros: Very accurate and works even where GPS signals can't reach. Hard (if not impossible) to mess with (less vulnerable to jamming and spoofing).

• Cons: Requires high-quality and extensive maps of Earth’s magnetic field, advanced equipment, and precise setup. This technology is quite new and under rigorous testing.

• Need-to-know companies: SandboxAQ, Infleqtion

3. Computer vision & AI object recognition

• What it is: Uses advanced cameras, sensors, and AI/ML algorithms to recognize landmarks (like buildings or trees) to "see" the environment, identify landmarks, and make decisions in real-time.

• How it works: Cameras capture images or video of the environment, and AI algorithms process these images to recognize objects, landmarks, and other relevant features. This information is then used to guide the device, and/or determine location.

• Pros: Computer vision can provide highly accurate navigation, especially in environments where GPS signals are weak or unavailable. Works well in cities and places with lots of recognizable features. Relies on visual data, making it less susceptible to interference.

• Cons: Poor lighting, weather conditions, or visual obstructions can reduce its effectiveness. Not a good GNSS replacement in areas without landmarks (e.g., transportation over oceans or at night).

• Need-to-know companies: ShieldAI, AeroVironment, Waymo

4. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations

• What it is: Many small satellites, orbiting close to Earth.

• How it works: These satellites orbit at altitudes between 500 and 2,000 km above Earth (compared to GNSS, which orbit at around 20,000 km), communicating with ground stations and each other.

• Pros: Cheaper to launch and operate compared to traditional high-altitude satellites; Reduced signal delay and stronger signals. Less susceptible to spoofing and blocking due to their rapid movement, the high frequency at which they transmit signals, and shorter distance to Earth.

• Cons: Shorter satellite lifespan. Requires a large number of satellites for continuous global coverage, which can increase complexity and potential for collisions, and means there isn’t as much global coverage compared to current GNSS solutions.

• Need-to-know companies: Xona Space Systems (just completed its $19M Series A), SpaceX (Starlink)*

Snacktime

📓 Reading: James Owen Weatherall’s The Physics of Wall Street: A Brief History of Predicting the Unpredictable.

♬ Listening to: Violet by Connor Price & Killa

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